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Al-Najma vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:30

Al-Najma

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Khalidiya

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-115.5%0-214.0%0-38.4%0-4+5.7%1 1-05.6%1-110.1%1-29.1%1-35.5%1-4+3.7%2 2-01.8%2-13.3%2-23.0%2-31.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 19.2% 5.20 -15.7%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 59.9% 1.67 -20.5%

Over 3.5 23.3% 37.7% 2.65 -22.9%

BTTS 48.6% 57.8% 1.73 -15.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob48.6%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.5%

#2 0–2 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Najma0.7

Khalidiya1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-NAJMA · PPG 1.50

KHALIDIYA · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Najma (H) 14.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -15.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Khalidiya (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Najma face Khalidiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Najma a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Khalidiya 62%, so Khalidiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Al-Najma and 1.8 for Khalidiya (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Najma are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 3.00 for Khalidiya. This match finished 1-3.

Al-Najma vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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