Today / Bahrain - Premier League / Al Shabbab vs Sitra

Al Shabbab vs Sitra Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Al Shabbab

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Sitra

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.0%0-119.4%0-29.4%0-33.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.8%1-112.4%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.1%2-14.0%2-21.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.9%3-10.9%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.2% 24.4% 4.10 +4.5%

Draw 35.7% 29.4% 3.40 +21.4%

Away win 38.1% 55.6% 1.80 -31.4%

Over 2.5 35.1% 47.6% 2.10 -26.3%

Over 3.5 8.0% 26.3% 3.80 -41.8%

BTTS 45.9% 52.4% 1.91 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob45.9%

A 38% / xG 0.6-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.0%

#2 0–1 19.4%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 0–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabbab0.6

Sitra1.0

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 8.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABBAB · PPG 0.60

SITRA · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.10) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabbab (H) 26.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +4.5%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.4%

Sitra (A) 38.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabbab face Sitra in Bahrain - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabbab a 26% chance, the draw 36% and Sitra 38%, so Sitra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Al Shabbab and 1.0 for Sitra (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabbab are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.10 for Sitra. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Shabbab vs Sitra Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bahrain - Premier League Predictions