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Al-Hidd vs Al Shabbab Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Al-Hidd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Shabbab

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-16.2%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.3%1-19.9%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-17.9%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.3%3-14.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-12.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 60.6% 1.65 -10.9%

Draw 26.3% 28.6% 3.50 -4.8%

Away win 19.7% 20.8% 4.80 -3.3%

Over 2.5 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

Over 3.5 16.4% 32.3% 3.10 -29.5%

BTTS 45.9% 55.6% 1.80 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 19.3%

#2 2–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 1–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Hidd1.6

Al Shabbab0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-HIDD · PPG 1.00

AL SHABBAB · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Hidd (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.8%

Al Shabbab (A) 19.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Hidd face Al Shabbab in Bahrain - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Hidd a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Al Shabbab 20%, so Al-Hidd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al-Hidd and 0.5 for Al Shabbab (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Hidd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Al Shabbab. This match finished 1-0.

Al-Hidd vs Al Shabbab Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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