Today / Bahrain - Premier League / Malkiya vs Al Riffa

Malkiya vs Al Riffa Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:00

Malkiya

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Al Riffa

PPG 2.30 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.5%0-116.4%0-28.1%0-32.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.3%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.4%2-15.4%2-22.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.4%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 19.0% 5.25 +33.2%

Draw 34.0% 27.8% 3.60 +22.4%

Away win 36.4% 63.7% 1.57 -42.9%

Over 2.5 34.7% 50.0% 2.00 -30.6%

Over 3.5 10.9% 28.6% 3.50 -37.1%

BTTS 47.9% 51.3% 1.95 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.9%

D 34% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.4%

#4 1–0 13.3%

#5 0–2✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malkiya0.8

Al Riffa1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 10.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MALKIYA · PPG 1.50

AL RIFFA · PPG 2.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.30) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Malkiya (H) 29.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +33.2%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +22.4%

Al Riffa (A) 36.4%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -42.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malkiya face Al Riffa in Bahrain - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malkiya a 30% chance, the draw 34% and Al Riffa 36%, so Al Riffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Malkiya and 1.0 for Al Riffa (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malkiya are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.30 for Al Riffa. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Malkiya vs Al Riffa Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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