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Sitra vs Malkiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:30

Sitra

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Malkiya

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-118.2%0-210.7%0-34.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.6%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-03.7%2-14.3%2-22.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.8%3-11.0%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% 41.7% 2.40 -25.3%

Draw 32.5% 33.3% 3.00 -2.5%

Away win 43.4% 35.1% 2.85 +23.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 12.0% 25.3% 3.95 -31.6%

BTTS 47.0% 54.6% 1.83 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.0%

A 43% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 0–1 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–0✓ 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sitra0.7

Malkiya1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SITRA · PPG 1.00

MALKIYA · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sitra (H) 24.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -25.3%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -2.5%

Malkiya (A) 43.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sitra face Malkiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sitra a 24% chance, the draw 33% and Malkiya 43%, so Malkiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sitra and 1.2 for Malkiya (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sitra are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Malkiya. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Sitra vs Malkiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bahrain - Premier League Predictions