Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Victoria NPL 2
Victoria NPL 2
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 55 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
56.4%
1X2
31/55
67.3%
O/U 2.5
37/55
63.6%
BTTS
35/55
43.6%
Exact score
24/55
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
42
Settled
59.5%
Hit rate
25/42
1.45
Avg odds
-15.2%
ROI
-6.4u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=20 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.44 · +8.7% ROI
BTTS · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.45 · -27.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=5 20.0% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -73.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.41 · -46.2% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.29 · -14.3% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.43 · +43.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-72.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+36.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-32.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
33
Bets
64%
Hit
-8.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
June 2026 // 8 PICKS · 6 HIT · 2 MISS
8 JUN M. Victory B vs Brunswick Juven Over 2.5 +1% 4–0 HIT6 JUN Port Melbourne vs Brunswick City Over 2.5 -13% 1–3 HIT6 JUN North Sunshine vs Melbourne K. Away +6% 1–1 MISS6 JUN Manningham Utd vs Western Utd B HO1.5 3–4 HIT5 JUN Eltham Redbacks vs Bulleen Over 2.5 -4% 2–2 HIT5 JUN Northcote City vs Langwarrin HO1.5 3–1 HIT1 JUN M. Victory B vs Melbourne K. Over 2.5 -9% 1–2 HIT1 JUN Bulleen vs Port Melbourne HO1.5 1–0 MISSMay 2026 // 7 PICKS · 6 HIT · 1 MISS
31 MAY Western Utd B vs Northcote City AO1.5 1–2 HIT30 MAY North Geelong vs North Sunshine Over 2.5 3–0 HIT30 MAY M. Srbija vs Langwarrin Over 2.5 -10% 0–0 MISS30 MAY Brunswick Juven vs Eltham Redbacks Over 2.5 -8% 2–1 HIT29 MAY Brunswick City vs Manningham Utd Over 2.5 -5% 3–1 HIT24 MAY Melbourne K. vs North Geelong Home 2–1 HIT23 MAY Port Melbourne vs Brunswick Juven Away -13% 0–2 HIT