Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Victoria NPL 2
Victoria NPL 2
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 88 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
58.0%
1X2
51/88
61.4%
O/U 2.5
54/88
52.3%
BTTS
46/88
43.2%
Exact score
38/88
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
10
Settled
50.0%
Hit rate
5/10
1.53
Avg odds
-27.7%
ROI
-2.8u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=4 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.44 · +44.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.79 · -100.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.35 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.46 · +46.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-63.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
1
Bets
100%
Hit
+36.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
5
Bets
60%
Hit
-11.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 15 PICKS · 7 HIT · 8 MISS
30 AUG Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City BTTS -21% 3–1 HIT30 AUG Eltham Redbacks FC vs Melbourne Knights BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT30 AUG Brunswick City vs Melbourne Srbija BTTS -21% 0–2 MISS30 AUG Melbourne Victory II vs Port Melbourne HO1.5 4–0 HIT30 AUG Langwarrin vs North Geelong Warriors Over 2.5 1–1 MISS30 AUG Brunswick Juventus FC vs Manningham United Blues HO1.5 3–0 HIT23 AUG Melbourne Knights vs Langwarrin Home -1% 0–2 MISS23 AUG Manningham United Blues vs Melbourne Victory II Over 2.5 -8% 0–3 HIT22 AUG Port Melbourne vs Eltham Redbacks FC Over 2.5 -22% 0–2 MISS22 AUG North Sunshine Eagles vs Brunswick City Over 2.5 -10% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Melbourne Srbija vs Bulleen Lions BTTS -19% 0–1 MISS21 AUG Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus FC BTTS -21% 1–2 HIT17 AUG Melbourne Victory II vs Northcote City BTTS -17% 0–1 MISS17 AUG Bulleen Lions vs North Sunshine Eagles Over 2.5 -14% 2–1 HIT15 AUG Port Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights Away -23% 1–1 MISS