Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus FC

Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus FC Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brunswick Juventus FC

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-17.6%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.9%1-112.0%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.9%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.8%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 43.5% 2.30 +9.7%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 25.3% 40.0% 2.50 -22.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 63.7% 1.57 -21.2%

Over 3.5 28.4% 42.0% 2.38 -19.4%

BTTS 53.0% 66.7% 1.50 -20.5%

Home O1.5 46.5% 50.5% 1.98 -7.9%

Away O1.5 31.3% 48.8% 2.05 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City1.6

Brunswick Juventus FC1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.00

BRUNSWICK JUVENTUS FC · PPG 1.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +9.7%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Brunswick Juventus FC (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face Brunswick Juventus FC in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Brunswick Juventus FC 25%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Northcote City and 1.0 for Brunswick Juventus FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Brunswick Juventus FC. This match finished 1-2.

Northcote City vs Brunswick Juventus FC Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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