Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Melbourne Victory II vs Northcote City

Melbourne Victory II vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 10:15

Melbourne Victory II

PPG 2.36 · HOME

UPCOMING

Northcote City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.5%0-24.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.7%1-111.1%1-27.0%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.4%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.2%3-15.3%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% — — —

Draw 24.3% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.3%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Victory II1.7

Northcote City1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE VICTORY II · PPG 2.36

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Victory II (H) 47.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Northcote City (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Victory II face Northcote City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Victory II a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Northcote City 28%, so Melbourne Victory II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Melbourne Victory II and 1.3 for Northcote City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Victory II are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 2.00 for Northcote City.

Melbourne Victory II vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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