Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Langwarrin vs North Geelong Warriors

Langwarrin vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Langwarrin

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

North Geelong Warriors

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.5%0-21.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.0%1-16.3%1-25.0%1-32.7%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.2%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.4%3-17.0%3-25.6%3-33.0%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-18.4%4+-26.7%4+-33.6%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 69.6% — — —

Over 3.5 48.7% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1✓ 6.3%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langwarrin2.6

North Geelong Warriors1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.17

NORTH GEELONG WARRIORS · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Langwarrin (H) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Geelong Warriors (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Langwarrin face North Geelong Warriors in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langwarrin a 56% chance, the draw 20% and North Geelong Warriors 24%, so Langwarrin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Langwarrin and 1.6 for North Geelong Warriors (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langwarrin are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.75 for North Geelong Warriors. This match finished 1-1.

Langwarrin vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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