Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Brunswick City vs Melbourne Srbija

Brunswick City vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Brunswick City

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Melbourne Srbija

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.2%0-24.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.6%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.5%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.5%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 41.7% 2.40 +14.2%

Draw 24.8% 30.3% 3.30 -10.9%

Away win 27.6% 41.7% 2.40 -20.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 63.7% 1.57 -16.0%

Over 3.5 31.7% 43.7% 2.29 -27.4%

BTTS 55.0% 69.4% 1.44 -20.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 52.1% 1.92 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick City1.6

Melbourne Srbija1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.83

MELBOURNE SRBIJA · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick City (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +14.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.9%

Melbourne Srbija (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick City face Melbourne Srbija in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick City a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Melbourne Srbija 28%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Brunswick City and 1.1 for Melbourne Srbija (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick City are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.17 for Melbourne Srbija. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Brunswick City vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions