Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City

Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Bulleen Lions

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Northcote City

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.1%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.5%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 41.7% 2.40 +6.3%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 29.0% 40.0% 2.50 -16.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 63.7% 1.57 -20.7%

Over 3.5 29.5% 41.5% 2.41 -17.3%

BTTS 52.7% 66.7% 1.50 -20.9%

Home O1.5 38.1% 49.8% 2.01 -23.4%

Away O1.5 35.4% 49.5% 2.02 -28.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bulleen Lions1.4

Northcote City1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BULLEEN LIONS · PPG 1.67

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bulleen Lions (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +6.3%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

Northcote City (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bulleen Lions face Northcote City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bulleen Lions a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Northcote City 29%, so Bulleen Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bulleen Lions and 1.2 for Northcote City (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bulleen Lions are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.08 for Northcote City. This match finished 3-1.

Bulleen Lions vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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