Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Melbourne Knights vs Langwarrin

Melbourne Knights vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne Knights

PPG 2.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Langwarrin

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.5%1-16.5%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-18.8%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.8%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.1%4+-110.1%4+-23.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.1% 69.4% 1.44 -0.5%

Draw 16.4% 22.2% 4.50 -15.7%

Away win 14.5% 20.8% 4.80 -18.2%

Over 2.5 65.2% 71.4% 1.40 -8.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 51.8% 1.93 -16.0%

BTTS 54.7% 66.7% 1.50 -17.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 75.8% 1.32 -14.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 37.3% 2.68 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.7%

H 69% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.4%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–1 6.5%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Knights2.7

Langwarrin0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE KNIGHTS · PPG 2.58

LANGWARRIN · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.92 for Home, form 2.58 vs 0.82 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Knights (H) 69.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -0.5%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -15.7%

Langwarrin (A) 14.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Knights face Langwarrin in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Knights a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Langwarrin 14%, so Melbourne Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Melbourne Knights and 0.8 for Langwarrin (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Knights are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 0.82 for Langwarrin. This match finished 0-2.

Melbourne Knights vs Langwarrin Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL 2 Predictions