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Port Melbourne vs Eltham Redbacks FC Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 04:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Eltham Redbacks FC

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-19.1%0-29.9%0-37.1%0-4+6.4%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.9%1-37.2%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.1%2-14.6%2-25.0%2-33.6%2-4+3.2%3 3-00.7%3-11.5%3-21.7%3-31.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 11.1% 9.00 +65.8%

Draw 21.3% 18.2% 5.50 +10.3%

Away win 55.4% 82.0% 1.22 -32.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 76.9% 1.30 -22.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 55.2% 1.81 -33.8%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.7% 3.75 +14.8%

Away O1.5 57.7% 79.4% 1.26 -27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob54.7%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2✓ 9.9%

#4 2–1 4.6%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne1.0

Eltham Redbacks FC2.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.67

ELTHAM REDBACKS FC · PPG 1.08

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.17 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 23.3%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +65.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.3%

Eltham Redbacks FC (A) 55.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -32.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face Eltham Redbacks FC in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Eltham Redbacks FC 55%, so Eltham Redbacks FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Port Melbourne and 2.2 for Eltham Redbacks FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.08 for Eltham Redbacks FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +38.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Port Melbourne vs Eltham Redbacks FC Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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