Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Manningham United Blues vs Melbourne Victory II

Manningham United Blues vs Melbourne Victory II Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 05:15

Manningham United Blues

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Melbourne Victory II

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.1%0-24.4%0-33.1%0-4+2.7%1 1-03.5%1-17.5%1-28.0%1-35.6%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.2%2-35.1%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.9%3-14.1%3-24.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.8%4+-23.0%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 27.8% 3.60 +16.3%

Draw 22.7% 25.6% 3.90 -6.9%

Away win 45.1% 58.8% 1.70 -23.3%

Over 2.5 67.3% 73.5% 1.36 -8.5%

Over 3.5 43.5% 54.9% 1.82 -20.8%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 50.0% 47.4% 2.11 +5.5%

Away O1.5 57.7% 70.4% 1.42 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.2%

A 45% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manningham United Blues1.8

Melbourne Victory II2.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MANNINGHAM UNITED BLUES · PPG 1.50

MELBOURNE VICTORY II · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Manningham United Blues (H) 32.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +16.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.9%

Melbourne Victory II (A) 45.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manningham United Blues face Melbourne Victory II in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manningham United Blues a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Melbourne Victory II 45%, so Melbourne Victory II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Manningham United Blues and 2.1 for Melbourne Victory II (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manningham United Blues are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.17 for Melbourne Victory II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Manningham United Blues vs Melbourne Victory II Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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