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Melbourne Srbija vs Bulleen Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 08:15

Melbourne Srbija

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bulleen Lions

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.7%0-26.0%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.6%1-113.1%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.1%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 41.7% 2.40 -13.6%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 59.9% 1.67 -16.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 40.2% 2.49 -18.0%

BTTS 53.0% 65.4% 1.53 -18.9%

Home O1.5 33.4% 49.0% 2.04 -31.9%

Away O1.5 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1✓ 10.7%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 11.6%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Srbija1.2

Bulleen Lions1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE SRBIJA · PPG 1.83

BULLEEN LIONS · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Srbija (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -13.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Bulleen Lions (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Srbija face Bulleen Lions in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Srbija a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Bulleen Lions 37%, so Bulleen Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Melbourne Srbija and 1.1 for Bulleen Lions (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Srbija are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.83 for Bulleen Lions. This match finished 0-1.

Melbourne Srbija vs Bulleen Lions Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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