Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Melbourne Victory II vs Port Melbourne

Melbourne Victory II vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne Victory II

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.6% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-11.8%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.5%1-15.2%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.6%2-17.4%2-22.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-17.1%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-018.7%4+-110.2%4+-22.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 87.7% 1.14 -15.3%

Draw 17.0% 14.3% 7.00 +11.4%

Away win 8.6% 8.3% 12.00 +1.9%

Over 2.5 59.8% 80.0% 1.25 -25.3%

Over 3.5 39.3% 59.9% 1.67 -34.4%

BTTS 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

Home O1.5 76.6% 90.9% 1.10 -15.7%

Away O1.5 15.1% 22.7% 4.40 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.2%

H 74% / xG 2.9-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 4–0✓ 9.3%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Victory II2.9

Port Melbourne0.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE VICTORY II · PPG 2.17

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.32 for Home, form 2.17 vs 0.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Victory II (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -15.3%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +11.4%

Port Melbourne (A) 8.6%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Victory II face Port Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Victory II a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Port Melbourne 9%, so Melbourne Victory II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Melbourne Victory II and 0.5 for Port Melbourne (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Victory II are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.75 for Port Melbourne. This match finished 4-0.

Melbourne Victory II vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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