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Port Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 04:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Melbourne Knights

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.6% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-114.0%0-214.4%0-39.9%0-4+8.2%1 1-04.3%1-18.8%1-29.1%1-36.2%1-4+5.2%2 2-01.3%2-12.8%2-22.9%2-32.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 9.1% 11.00 +27.1%

Draw 20.3% 14.3% 7.00 +25.3%

Away win 66.6% 85.5% 1.17 -22.1%

Over 2.5 54.6% 75.2% 1.33 -27.4%

Over 3.5 32.9% 56.5% 1.77 -41.8%

BTTS 49.0% 53.8% 1.86 -8.9%

Home O1.5 30.2% 19.6% 5.10 +54.0%

Away O1.5 53.9% 90.1% 1.11 -40.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob49.0%

A 67% / xG 0.6-2.1 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.4%

#2 0–1 14.0%

#3 1–1 8.8%

#4 0–3 9.9%

#5 1–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne0.6

Melbourne Knights2.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.64

MELBOURNE KNIGHTS · PPG 1.73

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.43 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 13.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +27.1%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +25.3%

Melbourne Knights (A) 66.6%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face Melbourne Knights in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 13% chance, the draw 20% and Melbourne Knights 67%, so Melbourne Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Port Melbourne and 2.1 for Melbourne Knights (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.73 for Melbourne Knights. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +54.0%.

Port Melbourne vs Melbourne Knights Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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