Leagues / AUSTRALIA / South Australia NPL
South Australia NPL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 60 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
53.3%
1X2
32/60
65.0%
O/U 2.5
39/60
56.7%
BTTS
34/60
21.7%
Exact score
13/60
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
48
Settled
64.6%
Hit rate
31/48
1.38
Avg odds
-11.7%
ROI
-5.6u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=30 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.39 · -15.8% ROI
BTTS · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.39 · -7.2% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.35 · +10.4% ROI
HOME WIN · N=3 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.29 · +29.3% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.09 · +9.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.73 · -100.0% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.73 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-33.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-29.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
9
Bets
67%
Hit
-13.1%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
33
Bets
67%
Hit
-7.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 6 PICKS · 3 HIT · 3 MISS
4 JUL Adelaide City vs Para Hills Home -8% 2–0 HIT4 JUL Adelaide Utd B vs Campbelltown Over 2.5 -12% 0–0 MISS4 JUL Sturt Lions vs Playford P. Over 2.5 -7% 1–0 MISS4 JUL FK Beograd vs West Adelaide Over 2.5 -6% 1–0 MISS4 JUL NE MetroStars vs West Torrens Over 2.5 -3% 3–1 HIT3 JUL Adelaide Comets vs Croydon Kings Over 2.5 1–4 HITJune 2026 // 9 PICKS · 5 HIT · 4 MISS
27 JUN Playford P. vs FK Beograd Over 2.5 -5% 0–1 MISS27 JUN Campbelltown vs West Adelaide Over 2.5 -6% 0–0 MISS27 JUN Para Hills vs NE MetroStars AO1.5 0–9 HIT26 JUN Croydon Kings vs Adelaide Utd B Over 2.5 3–0 HIT26 JUN West Torrens vs Sturt Lions Over 2.5 -8% 4–1 HIT26 JUN Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City Over 2.5 -8% 0–1 MISS20 JUN Playford P. vs Campbelltown Over 2.5 -4% 4–1 HIT20 JUN Sturt Lions vs Para Hills HO1.5 6–0 HIT20 JUN Adelaide Utd B vs Adelaide Comets Over 2.5 -12% 1–1 MISS