Today / Australia - South Australia NPL / Adelaide City vs Para Hills

Adelaide City vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:00

Adelaide City

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Para Hills

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 90.6% vs bookmaker-implied 99.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.3%1-10.6%1-20.2%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.5%2-11.8%2-20.4%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.5%3-13.3%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-048.8%4+-124.7%4+-26.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 90.6% 99.0% 1.01 -8.5%

Draw 6.4% 10.5% 9.50 -23.5%

Away win 3.0% 2.9% 34.00 +1.2%

Over 2.5 81.7% 89.3% 1.12 -8.5%

Over 3.5 62.8% 78.1% 1.28 -19.6%

BTTS 48.5% 40.8% 2.45 +18.8%

Home O1.5 77.8% 96.2% 1.04 -19.1%

Away O1.5 18.0% 12.5% 8.00 +26.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)5.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 91% / xG 5.6-0.5 / O2.5 82% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 10.2%

#2 4–0 9.1%

#3 3–0 6.5%

#4 5–1 5.2%

#5 4–1 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City5.6

Para Hills0.5

COMBINED 6.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.7% · O3.5 PROB 62.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.43

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 90.6%

ODDS 1.01 · IMPLIED 99.0% EV -8.5%

Draw 6.4%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV -23.5%

Para Hills (A) 3.0%

ODDS 34.00 · IMPLIED 2.9% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face Para Hills in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 91% chance, the draw 6% and Para Hills 3%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.6 for Adelaide City and 0.5 for Para Hills (6.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.00 for Para Hills. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +26.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Adelaide City vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - South Australia NPL Predictions