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West Torrens vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 10:30

West Torrens

PPG 2.43 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sturt Lions

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.6%0-22.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.6%1-18.1%1-25.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.3%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.7%3-16.8%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-16.5%4+-24.7%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 1.75 -10.8%

Draw 21.7% 3.85 -9.9%

Away win 27.3% 3.45 -3.5%

Over 2.5 66.0% 1.40 -7.6%

Over 3.5 43.6% 1.90 -17.2%

BTTS 63.5% 1.40 -11.1%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.50 -9.1%

Away Over 1.5 40.7% 2.38 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Torrens2.2

Sturt Lions1.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST TORRENS · PPG 2.43

STURT LIONS · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

West Torrens (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.9%

Sturt Lions (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Torrens face Sturt Lions in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Torrens a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Sturt Lions 27%, so West Torrens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for West Torrens and 1.4 for Sturt Lions (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Torrens are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 0.86 for Sturt Lions. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 4-1.

West Torrens vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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