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Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 11:00

Adelaide Comets

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Adelaide City

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-111.0%0-210.4%0-36.6%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.5%1-110.5%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.6%2 2-02.6%2-15.0%2-24.7%2-33.0%2-4+2.2%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 4.20 -7.6%

Draw 22.1% 4.00 -7.0%

Away win 57.1% 1.57 -10.3%

Over 2.5 61.3% 1.50 -8.1%

Over 3.5 37.1% 2.05 -23.9%

BTTS 55.8% 1.55 -13.5%

Home Over 1.5 34.5% 2.75 -5.1%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.50 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.8%

A 57% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1✓ 11.0%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets1.0

Adelaide City1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 1.29

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.29), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 20.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.0%

Adelaide City (A) 57.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face Adelaide City in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide City 57%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Adelaide Comets and 1.9 for Adelaide City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.50 for Adelaide City. This match finished 0-1.

Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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