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FK Beograd vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 07:30

FK Beograd

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

West Adelaide

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.5%0-21.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.5%1-16.5%1-24.7%1-32.3%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.8%2-18.5%2-26.2%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-05.1%3-17.4%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-19.0%4+-26.6%4+-33.2%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 59.5% 1.68 -4.6%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 22.1% 27.4% 3.65 -11.6%

Over 2.5 67.2% 71.4% 1.40 -5.9%

Over 3.5 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

BTTS 63.3% 71.4% 1.40 -11.4%

Home O1.5 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Away O1.5 48.0% 42.0% 2.38 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 57% / xG 2.6-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 1–1 6.5%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd2.6

West Adelaide1.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.86

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=56.8%

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -4.6%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

West Adelaide (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face West Adelaide in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 57% chance, the draw 21% and West Adelaide 22%, so FK Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for FK Beograd and 1.5 for West Adelaide (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for West Adelaide. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 1-0.

FK Beograd vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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