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Croydon Kings vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, June 26, 2026, 10:00

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.25 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.9%0-23.6%0-32.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-04.4%1-17.9%1-27.2%1-34.3%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-18.0%2-27.3%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.0%3-15.4%3-24.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.3%4+-23.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.7% — —

Draw 21.9% — —

Away win 33.3% — —

Over 2.5 66.3% — —

Over 3.5 43.6% — —

BTTS 64.1% — —

Home Over 1.5 54.4% — —

Away Over 1.5 49.7% — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.1%

H 45% / xG 2.0-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Croydon Kings2.0

Adelaide Utd B1.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.25

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.25) vs Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Croydon Kings (H) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adelaide Utd B (A) 33.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Croydon Kings face Adelaide Utd B in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, June 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Croydon Kings a 45% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Utd B 33%, so Croydon Kings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Croydon Kings and 1.8 for Adelaide Utd B (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Croydon Kings are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.57 for Adelaide Utd B. This match finished 3-0.

Croydon Kings vs Adelaide Utd B Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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