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Adelaide Utd B vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Campbelltown

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.3%0-24.0%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.6%1-19.8%1-27.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.7%3-15.5%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Draw 25.1% 26.7% 3.75 -3.5%

Away win 28.4% 39.2% 2.55 -16.6%

Over 2.5 62.9% 71.4% 1.40 -11.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% 55.6% 1.80 -28.4%

BTTS 62.1% 74.1% 1.35 -16.2%

Home O1.5 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Away O1.5 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd B1.8

Campbelltown1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.25

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd B (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +2.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.5%

Campbelltown (A) 28.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd B face Campbelltown in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd B a 47% chance, the draw 25% and Campbelltown 28%, so Adelaide Utd B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Adelaide Utd B and 1.5 for Campbelltown (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd B are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Campbelltown. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Adelaide Utd B vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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