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Campbelltown vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 05:30

Campbelltown

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

West Adelaide

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.4%0-22.5%0-31.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-02.8%1-15.8%1-26.0%1-34.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.1%2-34.9%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.6%3-15.5%3-25.6%3-33.9%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.7%4+-25.9%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 1.64 -27.5%

Draw 21.2% 4.10 -7.8%

Away win 34.6% 3.75 +29.8%

Over 2.5 72.1% 1.30 -6.3%

Over 3.5 52.9% 1.65 -12.7%

BTTS 68.6% 1.33 -8.8%

Home Over 1.5 60.6% 1.40 -15.2%

Away Over 1.5 50.0% 2.10 +5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob68.6%

H 44% / xG 2.4-2.1 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Campbelltown2.4

West Adelaide2.1

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.1% · O3.5 PROB 52.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.43

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Campbelltown (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -27.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.8%

West Adelaide (A) 34.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Campbelltown face West Adelaide in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Campbelltown a 44% chance, the draw 21% and West Adelaide 35%, so Campbelltown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Campbelltown and 2.1 for West Adelaide (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Campbelltown are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.00 for West Adelaide. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +31.9%.

Campbelltown vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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