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Adelaide Comets vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, July 3, 2026, 11:00

Adelaide Comets

PPG 1.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.3%0-26.7%0-34.8%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.1%1-18.8%1-29.3%1-36.6%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.9%2-16.1%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.7% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 52.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.1% — — —

Over 3.5 43.9% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 43.0% — — —

Away O1.5 52.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -6.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.3%

A 52% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.7%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets1.4

Croydon Kings2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 1.13

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 52.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face Croydon Kings in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, July 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Croydon Kings 52%, so Croydon Kings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Adelaide Comets and 2.1 for Croydon Kings (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.57 for Croydon Kings.

Adelaide Comets vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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