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Playford P. vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, June 27, 2026, 05:30

Playford P.

PPG 2.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

FK Beograd

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.5%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.2%1-18.5%1-27.0%1-33.8%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.5%3-15.8%3-24.7%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.6%4+-23.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 2.15 -4.3%

Draw 21.8% 3.75 -10.9%

Away win 33.7% 2.60 -12.4%

Over 2.5 66.3% 1.44 -4.5%

Over 3.5 43.6% 2.00 -12.8%

BTTS 63.5% 1.40 -11.1%

Home Over 1.5 54.4% 1.73 -5.9%

Away Over 1.5 49.7% 1.83 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 24%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford P.2.0

FK Beograd1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 2.13

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Playford P. (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.9%

FK Beograd (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford P. face FK Beograd in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford P. a 45% chance, the draw 22% and FK Beograd 34%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Playford P. and 1.6 for FK Beograd (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford P. are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.38 for FK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.0%.

Playford P. vs FK Beograd Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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