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Sturt Lions vs Playford P. Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Playford P.

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 70.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.3%0-23.5%0-32.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-03.1%1-16.7%1-27.1%1-35.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.2%3-14.7%3-25.0%3-33.5%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.8%4+-24.1%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 40.8% 2.45 +8.5%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -9.7%

Away win 34.2% 45.5% 2.20 -24.8%

Over 2.5 70.2% 75.2% 1.33 -6.6%

Over 3.5 49.0% 57.8% 1.73 -15.2%

BTTS 69.1% 75.2% 1.33 -8.1%

Home O1.5 59.3% 57.8% 1.73 +2.6%

Away O1.5 52.2% 63.7% 1.57 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.1%

H 44% / xG 2.0-2.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 2–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions2.0

Playford P.2.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.2% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.50

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +8.5%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.7%

Playford P. (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Playford P. in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Playford P. 34%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sturt Lions and 2.1 for Playford P. (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.29 for Playford P.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Sturt Lions vs Playford P. Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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