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Playford P. vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:30

Playford P.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Campbelltown

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.1%0-21.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-03.2%1-15.6%1-24.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.3%2-17.5%2-26.5%2-33.8%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.8%3-16.7%3-25.9%3-33.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-18.6%4+-27.5%4+-34.4%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 2.15 +12.7%

Draw 20.8% 3.75 -13.2%

Away win 26.8% 2.60 -18.2%

Over 2.5 71.9% 1.33 -4.4%

Over 3.5 47.5% 1.80 -14.5%

BTTS 68.1% 1.33 -9.4%

Win probability 1X2

Playford P. (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +12.7%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.2%

Campbelltown (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.1%

H 52% / xG 2.7-1.7 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%

#2 3–1 6.7%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 1–1 5.6%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Playford P.2.7

Campbelltown1.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAYFORD P. · PPG 2.00

CAMPBELLTOWN · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Playford P. face Campbelltown in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Playford P. a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Campbelltown 27%, so Playford P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Playford P. and 1.7 for Campbelltown (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Playford P. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Campbelltown. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +37.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Playford P. vs Campbelltown Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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