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Adelaide Utd B vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide Utd B

PPG 1.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.0%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 1.80 -3.2%

Draw 22.4% 3.70 -10.3%

Away win 23.8% 3.40 -11.5%

Over 2.5 61.1% 1.44 -12.0%

Over 3.5 38.2% 2.00 -23.6%

BTTS 58.6% 1.40 -18.0%

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Utd B (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.3%

Adelaide Comets (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -20.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Utd B2.0

Adelaide Comets1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UTD B · PPG 1.29

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs P(Home)=53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Utd B face Adelaide Comets in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Utd B a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Comets 24%, so Adelaide Utd B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Adelaide Utd B and 1.1 for Adelaide Comets (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Utd B are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.43 for Adelaide Comets. This match finished 1-1.

Adelaide Utd B vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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