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Sturt Lions vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, June 20, 2026, 05:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.29 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Para Hills

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 84.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-10.7%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.2%1-12.9%1-21.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.1%2-15.7%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-17.4%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-021.7%4+-120.0%4+-29.2%4+-32.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.7% 84.7% 1.18 -14.2%

Draw 17.8% 17.4% 5.75 +1.4%

Away win 9.5% 10.0% 10.00 -3.0%

Over 2.5 77.0% 80.0% 1.25 -3.8%

Over 3.5 53.2% 62.5% 1.60 -14.9%

BTTS 61.6% 63.7% 1.57 -3.3%

Home O1.5 77.8% 84.7% 1.18 -8.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 27.9% 3.58 -0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob61.6%

H 73% / xG 3.9-0.9 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.0%

#2 4–0 7.8%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 4–1 7.2%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions3.9

Para Hills0.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.29

PARA HILLS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 72.7%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -14.2%

Draw 17.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +1.4%

Para Hills (A) 9.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Para Hills in Australia - South Australia NPL on Saturday, June 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Para Hills 10%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Sturt Lions and 0.9 for Para Hills (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.00 for Para Hills. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 6-0.

Sturt Lions vs Para Hills Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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