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Al Quadisiya vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Quadisiya

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Shabab

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+15.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.5%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.2%1-17.9%1-22.3%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.8%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.5%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-16.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.8% 64.5% 1.55 +15.9%

Draw 16.8% 22.7% 4.40 -26.1%

Away win 8.4% 19.6% 5.10 -57.2%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.0% 1.45 -22.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 46.5% 2.15 -32.3%

BTTS 40.1% 66.7% 1.50 -39.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob40.1%

H 75% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 1–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Quadisiya2.2

Al Shabab0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL QUADISIYA · PPG 2.29

AL SHABAB · PPG 0.86

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.86) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Quadisiya (H) 74.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +15.9%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -26.1%

Al Shabab (A) 8.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -57.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Quadisiya face Al Shabab in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Quadisiya a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Al Shabab 8%, so Al Quadisiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al Quadisiya and 0.6 for Al Shabab (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Quadisiya are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.86 for Al Shabab. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Quadisiya vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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