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Al Shabab vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 18:00

Al Shabab

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-17.4%0-27.0%0-34.4%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.3%1-110.0%1-29.4%1-35.9%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.6%2-16.8%2-26.4%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.6%3-13.1%3-22.9%3-31.8%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

Draw 25.2% 25.6% 3.90 -1.0%

Away win 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 40.7% 44.4% 2.25 -8.4%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shabab1.4

Al Ittihad1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHABAB · PPG 1.19

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.19) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shabab (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -1.0%

Al Ittihad (A) 45.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shabab face Al Ittihad in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shabab a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Al Ittihad 46%, so Al Ittihad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Shabab and 1.9 for Al Ittihad (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shabab are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Ittihad. This match finished 3-2.

Al Shabab vs Al Ittihad Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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