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Neom SC vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 18:00

Neom SC

PPG 1.31 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Ittifaq

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.8%0-25.5%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.3%1-111.6%1-28.2%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.0%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 54.6% 1.83 -30.8%

Draw 25.6% 25.3% 3.95 +0.7%

Away win 36.6% 27.4% 3.65 +33.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 65.4% 1.53 -9.6%

Over 3.5 32.8% 42.6% 2.35 -22.9%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 38% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neom SC1.5

Al Ittifaq1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NEOM SC · PPG 1.31

AL ITTIFAQ · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.31), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Neom SC (H) 37.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -30.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +0.7%

Al Ittifaq (A) 36.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neom SC face Al Ittifaq in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neom SC a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Al Ittifaq 37%, so Neom SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Neom SC and 1.4 for Al Ittifaq (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neom SC are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.38 for Al Ittifaq. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Neom SC vs Al Ittifaq Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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