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Al Khaleej vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 18:00

Al Khaleej

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Ahli Jeddah

PPG 2.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.3%0-210.0%0-36.4%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.3%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.7%2-15.1%2-25.0%2-33.2%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 16.1% 6.20 +21.8%

Draw 23.8% 22.2% 4.50 +4.3%

Away win 54.2% 69.0% 1.45 -21.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 64.5% 1.55 -8.4%

Over 3.5 33.7% 42.6% 2.35 -20.8%

BTTS 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.7%

A 54% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khaleej1.0

Al Ahli Jeddah1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 1.25

AL AHLI JEDDAH · PPG 2.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Al Khaleej (H) 22.0%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +21.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.3%

Al Ahli Jeddah (A) 54.2%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej face Al Ahli Jeddah in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Al Ahli Jeddah 54%, so Al Ahli Jeddah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Al Khaleej and 1.9 for Al Ahli Jeddah (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.06 for Al Ahli Jeddah. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 1-4.

Al Khaleej vs Al Ahli Jeddah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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