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Al Ittihad vs Al Quadisiya Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 18:00

Al Ittihad

PPG 1.94 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Quadisiya

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.6%0-27.8%0-34.7%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.8%1-110.6%1-29.6%1-35.8%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-16.6%2-26.0%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.7%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.8%

Draw 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ittihad1.2

Al Quadisiya1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ITTIHAD · PPG 1.94

AL QUADISIYA · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.94), Away EXCELLENT (2.19)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ittihad (H) 28.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.8%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Al Quadisiya (A) 45.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ittihad face Al Quadisiya in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ittihad a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Al Quadisiya 46%, so Al Quadisiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Ittihad and 1.8 for Al Quadisiya (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ittihad are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 2.19 for Al Quadisiya. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 1-5.

Al Ittihad vs Al Quadisiya Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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