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Al Hazm vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 18:00

Al Hazm

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Taawon

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-19.0%0-28.6%0-35.5%0-4+4.1%1 1-05.3%1-110.2%1-29.9%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.0%2-15.8%2-25.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.7%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Draw 24.0% 26.0% 3.85 -4.6%

Away win 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 61.7% 1.62 -3.5%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 53% / xG 1.1-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Hazm1.1

Al Taawon1.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL HAZM · PPG 1.44

AL TAAWON · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.44), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Al Hazm (H) 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.6%

Al Taawon (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Hazm face Al Taawon in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Hazm a 23% chance, the draw 24% and Al Taawon 53%, so Al Taawon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Al Hazm and 1.9 for Al Taawon (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Hazm are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.69 for Al Taawon. This match finished 2-0.

Al Hazm vs Al Taawon Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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