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Al Riyadh vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 18:00

Al Riyadh

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Akhdoud

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-17.8%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.1%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.9%3-14.8%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 73.5% 1.36 -31.3%

Draw 25.4% 21.1% 4.75 +12.4%

Away win 24.0% 13.2% 7.60 +49.4%

Over 2.5 47.6% 64.5% 1.55 -26.2%

Over 3.5 25.0% 42.6% 2.35 -24.8%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0✓ 12.3%

#3 0–0 7.9%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riyadh1.5

Al Akhdoud1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIYADH · PPG 1.06

AL AKHDOUD · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.06) > Away POOR (0.31)

Win probability 1X2

Al Riyadh (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -31.3%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +12.4%

Al Akhdoud (A) 24.0%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +49.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riyadh face Al Akhdoud in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riyadh a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Al Akhdoud 24%, so Al Riyadh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Riyadh and 1.0 for Al Akhdoud (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.31 for Al Akhdoud. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Riyadh vs Al Akhdoud Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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