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Al Kholood vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 18:00

Al Kholood

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Fateh

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 66% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.2%0-25.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.2%1-111.7%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.0%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.0%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -2.3%

Away win 37.2% 40.0% 2.50 -7.0%

Over 2.5 55.9% 64.5% 1.55 -13.4%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.0% 2.38 -23.4%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0✓ 5.7%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kholood1.4

Al Fateh1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHOLOOD · PPG 0.75

AL FATEH · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Al Kholood (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.0%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.3%

Al Fateh (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kholood face Al Fateh in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kholood a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Al Fateh 37%, so Al Fateh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Kholood and 1.4 for Al Fateh (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kholood are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.69 for Al Fateh. This match finished 0-0.

Al Kholood vs Al Fateh Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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