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Al Nassr vs Damak Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 21, 2026, 18:00

Al Nassr

PPG 2.69 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Damak

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 91.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-12.1%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.4%1-15.9%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-18.1%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.9%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-016.0%4+-19.9%4+-23.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 91.7% 1.09 -25.8%

Draw 22.7% 11.6% 8.60 +57.1%

Away win 9.2% 3.8% 26.00 +83.5%

Over 2.5 62.6% 75.2% 1.33 -16.7%

Over 3.5 43.5% 54.6% 1.83 -20.4%

BTTS 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 68% / xG 2.8-0.6 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 3–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 4–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Nassr2.8

Damak0.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NASSR · PPG 2.69

DAMAK · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.69), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Nassr (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -25.8%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 8.60 · IMPLIED 11.6% EV +57.1%

Damak (A) 9.2%

ODDS 26.00 · IMPLIED 3.8% EV +83.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Nassr face Damak in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Thursday, May 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Nassr a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Damak 9%, so Al Nassr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Al Nassr and 0.6 for Damak (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Nassr are averaging 2.69 points per game versus 0.69 for Damak. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +83.5%. This match finished 4-1.

Al Nassr vs Damak Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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