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Al Najma vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 34 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 18:00

Al Najma

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Shabab

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.8%0-27.6%0-34.4%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.3%1-110.9%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.9%2-16.8%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 18.2% 5.50 +33.7%

Draw 26.3% 22.2% 4.50 +11.0%

Away win 45.4% 66.7% 1.50 -31.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 65.4% 1.53 -9.6%

Over 3.5 35.0% 42.6% 2.35 -17.8%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 2–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Najma1.2

Al Shabab1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NAJMA · PPG 0.63

AL SHABAB · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.81)

Win probability 1X2

Al Najma (H) 28.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +33.7%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +11.0%

Al Shabab (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Najma face Al Shabab in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Najma a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Al Shabab 45%, so Al Shabab are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Najma and 1.7 for Al Shabab (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Najma are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.81 for Al Shabab. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Najma vs Al Shabab Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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