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Goias vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Goias

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

UPCOMING

Fortaleza EC

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-113.4%0-26.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.9%1-113.5%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.5%2-16.8%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 39.7% 2.52 -7.5%

Draw 32.2% 33.6% 2.98 -4.0%

Away win 31.2% 33.8% 2.96 -7.6%

Over 2.5 39.7% 40.8% 2.45 -2.7%

Over 3.5 20.8% 21.1% 4.75 -0.7%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Away O1.5 26.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Goias1.0

Fortaleza EC0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GOIAS · PPG 1.83

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Goias (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -7.5%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -4.0%

Fortaleza EC (A) 31.2%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Goias face Fortaleza EC in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Goias a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Fortaleza EC 31%, so Goias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Goias and 0.9 for Fortaleza EC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Goias are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.08 for Fortaleza EC. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +1.7%.

Goias vs Fortaleza EC Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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