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Londrina vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Londrina

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

UPCOMING

Operario-PR

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.3%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.3%1-112.2%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.0%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.7%3-14.4%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 44.4% 2.25 -2.4%

Draw 27.5% 32.3% 3.10 -8.8%

Away win 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.9% 3.58 +1.7%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 42.6% 2.35 -6.2%

Away O1.5 34.6% 33.6% 2.98 +3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–0 7.0%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Londrina1.5

Operario-PR1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LONDRINA · PPG 1.17

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Londrina (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.8%

Operario-PR (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Londrina face Operario-PR in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Londrina a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Operario-PR 29%, so Londrina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Londrina and 1.2 for Operario-PR (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Londrina are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.25 for Operario-PR. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Londrina vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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