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CRB vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:30

CRB

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

UPCOMING

America Mineiro

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.0%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.2%1-17.4%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-17.7%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.8%4+-18.7%4+-23.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 65.8% 1.52 +0.2%

Draw 19.1% 25.6% 3.90 -15.3%

Away win 15.0% 15.4% 6.50 -1.5%

Over 2.5 61.9% 54.1% 1.85 +14.5%

Over 3.5 40.2% 31.3% 3.20 +28.6%

BTTS 52.9% 52.6% 1.90 +0.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 60.6% 1.65 +9.4%

Away O1.5 23.5% 23.1% 4.33 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 172 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 66% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB2.5

America Mineiro0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.50

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.38

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 1.50 vs 0.38 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 65.9%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV +0.2%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.3%

America Mineiro (A) 15.0%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face America Mineiro in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 66% chance, the draw 19% and America Mineiro 15%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for CRB and 0.8 for America Mineiro (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.38 for America Mineiro. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +36.5%.

CRB vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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