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Novorizontino vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Novorizontino

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

Avai

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 58.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.7%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-19.6%1-23.9%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.6%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.4%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 68.0% 1.47 -15.5%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 21.3% 14.3% 7.00 +29.5%

Over 2.5 55.3% 50.0% 2.00 +10.6%

Over 3.5 34.6% 28.6% 3.50 +21.1%

BTTS 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Home O1.5 58.1% 58.8% 1.70 -1.2%

Away O1.5 23.5% 20.0% 5.00 +10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 57% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino2.0

Avai0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.92

AVAI · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.47 · IMPLIED 68.0% EV -15.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Avai (A) 21.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +29.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Avai in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Avai 21%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Novorizontino and 0.8 for Avai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 0.92 for Avai. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.1%.

Novorizontino vs Avai Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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