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Ceara vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:30

Ceara

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

UPCOMING

Sport Recife

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-112.6%0-27.2%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.2%2-17.1%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.2%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 44.6% 2.24 -19.8%

Draw 27.8% 31.7% 3.15 -7.5%

Away win 36.4% 30.8% 3.25 +18.3%

Over 2.5 47.5% 46.5% 2.15 +2.1%

Over 3.5 26.3% 25.0% 4.00 +3.1%

BTTS 50.9% 54.6% 1.83 -6.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 42.6% 2.35 -27.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 32.3% 3.10 +2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.9%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceara1.1

Sport Recife1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARA · PPG 1.38

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.33

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.08, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ceara (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -19.8%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -7.5%

Sport Recife (A) 36.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceara face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceara a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Sport Recife 36%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Ceara and 1.1 for Sport Recife (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceara are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.33 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +9.3%.

Ceara vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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