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Botafogo vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 21:30

Botafogo

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

UPCOMING

Palmeiras

PPG 1.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.2%0-27.0%0-34.0%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.4%1-110.9%1-29.3%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.3%2-26.2%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.9%3-13.2%3-22.7%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

Draw 23.4% 30.3% 3.30 -13.7%

Away win 46.9% 46.5% 2.15 +0.8%

Over 2.5 60.6% 52.6% 1.90 +15.1%

Over 3.5 37.5% 31.3% 3.20 +20.0%

BTTS 61.5% 57.8% 1.73 +6.4%

Home O1.5 38.9% 36.4% 2.75 +7.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 47% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo1.3

Palmeiras1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.45

PALMEIRAS · PPG 1.92

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.7%

Palmeiras (A) 46.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 30% chance, the draw 23% and Palmeiras 47%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Botafogo and 1.7 for Palmeiras (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.92 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.0%.

Botafogo vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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