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Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:00

Fluminense

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Vasco DA Gama

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 51% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+49.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.7%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.5%1-23.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.7%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.4%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.2%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 45.5% 2.20 +36.0%

Draw 18.1% 32.3% 3.10 -26.3%

Away win 20.1% 32.3% 3.10 -22.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 47.6% 2.10 +33.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 25.0% 4.00 +62.0%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 44.4% 2.25 +49.2%

Away O1.5 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.9%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.5%

#4 1–0✓ 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense2.3

Vasco DA Gama0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE · PPG 2.31

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense (H) 61.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +36.0%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -26.3%

Vasco DA Gama (A) 20.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense face Vasco DA Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense a 62% chance, the draw 18% and Vasco DA Gama 20%, so Fluminense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Fluminense and 0.9 for Vasco DA Gama (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.45 for Vasco DA Gama. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +119.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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