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Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:30

Sao Paulo

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

UPCOMING

Atletico-MG

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.5%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.5%1-112.4%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.1%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% 45.9% 2.18 -2.3%

Draw 26.1% 31.7% 3.15 -10.7%

Away win 29.0% 29.4% 3.40 -0.8%

Over 2.5 50.4% 45.5% 2.20 +10.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 42.6% 2.35 -6.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -9.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.2%

H 45% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.5

Atletico-MG0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 1.91

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 44.8%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -2.3%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -10.7%

Atletico-MG (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face Atletico-MG in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Atletico-MG 29%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sao Paulo and 0.9 for Atletico-MG (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.08 for Atletico-MG. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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