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Internacional vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Internacional

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

UPCOMING

Santos

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.4%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.0%1-112.8%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.8%2-18.7%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.0%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 52.4% 1.91 -16.5%

Draw 26.4% 30.3% 3.30 -7.7%

Away win 29.9% 27.0% 3.70 +6.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 51.3% 57.1% 1.75 -10.2%

Home O1.5 39.5% 52.4% 1.91 -24.6%

Away O1.5 29.3% 30.8% 3.25 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.3%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Internacional1.4

Santos1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.08

SANTOS · PPG 0.91

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Internacional (H) 43.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -16.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.7%

Santos (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Internacional face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Internacional a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Santos 30%, so Internacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Internacional and 1.0 for Santos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Internacional are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 0.91 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Internacional vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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